While there is no general consensus about how long the bear market will last, it is expected that prices will continue to fall for a long time. Demand for products on a market under the bear market is declining. Because demand is decreasing, nobody wants to buy those products and prices continue to fall.
The bull market, on the contrary of the bear market, shows that the related market will be on the rising trend for a long time and that the demand for the products in that market is increasing.
If gold prices were to be taken as an example, the bull market was experiencing a rising trend from the beginning of 2000s to the end of 2011 for a long time. However, in the middle of 2013, 2011 peak price level of 1900 dollars ounce of the level of 1500 ounces fell below. There was a decrease of about 30% from the previous peak level and gold prices were officially under the influence of the bull market.
Resistance: 111.90 / 1112.75 / 113.50
Support: 110.70 / 111.00 / 109.20
Resistance: 46.60 / 47.00 / 48.50
Support: 45.50 / 44.45 / 43.30
Resistance: 48.50 / 49.20 / 50.00
Support: 47.80 / 46.60 / 45.35
The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States, which was founded on December 23, 1913. Over time, the roles and responsibilities of the Federal Reserve System have been expanded and changes have taken hold. Ben Bernanke, head of the central bank in Washington. The bank also has the authority to print and distribute US dollars.
The FOMC is the US Federal Reserve Open Market Operations Committee. It is the most important part of the Federal Reserve System’s monetary policies. The FOMC has important tasks such as increasing employment, keeping inflation and macroeconomic balance at an acceptable level, and taking measures to promote economic growth.
The Federal Open Market Commitee meets eight times a year to assess economic trends and determine their monetary policy. FOMC Meetings (FOMC Minutes) are announced three weeks after the FED meetings. In the meeting records; The reasons behind the decisions of the FED meetings include the FOMC members’ view of the macroeconomic outlook, the duration of economic measures and interest rate decisions, and forecasts for future periods. Investors look for clues in this long text for changes that may occur in the FED’s monetary policies.
Interpretation of FOMC Decisions
Interest Rate Decisions: Commitments to keep FED’s policy rate at certain levels are affecting the course of the US dollar and commodities. For example; A clue to the prolongation of the rate at which interest rates are held at very low levels will create a low interest-weak dollar sense. Read More
We can explain it in two ways.
In addition to trading a profit or a return, foreign exchange trading can be used to hedge a stock portfolio. For example, if you set up a portfolio of shares in a country with a potential to raise the value of a share, but a risk of insolvency in currency, such as in the recent US, then a trader may own the share. Create a portfolio and shorten the Swiss franc or euro To sell futures. In this way, the portfolio value will increase and the negative impact of the falling dollar will be significant. This is true for investors outside the United States who take their earnings back to their own currency.
A second approach to transaction currencies is to understand baselines and long-term benefits when a currency advances in a particular direction and provides a positive interest rate differential that provides a value in the currency value of the return of the investment. This type of trade is known as “transport trade”.
For example, a trader can take the Australian Dollar against the Japanese Yen. When the original of this article is published, the Japanese interest rate is 0.05%, the most recently reported Australian interest rate is 4.75%, so a trader can earn 4% in this trade.
Nevertheless, such a positive interest should be seen in the real exchange rate context of the AUD / JPY before the decision of interest is given. If the Australian dollar is strengthening against the yen, it would be appropriate to hold the AUD / JPY to gain both the appreciation of the currency and the yield of interest.
For some, it is easier to focus on economic activity to make trade decisions than to understand the nuances that exist in stocks and futures markets, which usually require economic activity, and often the closed environments. Questions about a company’s management skills, financial strengths, market opportunities, and industry specific information are not required for forex trading.
Oil is among the most heavily traded commodities in the Forex markets. There are two types of Oil used in the world.
Crude oil, which is very important in the world economy and accepted as black gold; Industrial, automotive, energy, chemical, cosmetics. The world is being used as a leading indicator of oil prices and is being removed from the state of Texas. Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) oil is called “Texas light sweet” because of its low light (light) and low sulfur (sweet) content. Crude oil prices show great sensitivity to political and economic developments, but also change as the geopolitical risks in the Middle East increase. Many factors, such as oil reserve levels, changes in global climate, economic developments, supply and demand balance, have an impact on crude oil prices. In the forex market of crude oil, the volume of transactions is quite high, and in the market both profit and loss can be achieved both in value increments and in value losses.
After crude oil is the second highest quality oil in the world. Its name is taken from the initials of five separate tectonic strata in the North Sea (Broom, Rannoch, Etieve, Ness, Tarbat) between England and Norway. It shows great sensitivity to political and economic developments, but is affected more quickly than the changes that may occur. The geopolitical risks and economic vitality on the Eurozone are influential in the upward and downward movement of prices, as developments in the Middle East are influential on Brent Oil prices.
Transactions on oil at financial markets may be futures (traded within a certain period) or as demand (traders continuing until the investor finishes trading positions). Therefore, there is no obligation to close positions at the end of the maturity. The positive or negative overnight cost (Swap) is reflected according to the trading direction of the investor.
Investment decisions can be taken more precisely when all the circumstances are considered and when the commodity has trackable information.
A parity is a pair of currencies in which a country’s currency is valued against the currency of the other country. According to their prevalence in global markets, major and minor (exotic) parities are examined in two groups. The parallels traded most in global markets are called major. Another reason for the major denomination of these currencies is that country economies are robust and dynamic.
There are 7 major currencies that are traded on financial markets. These are Euro, US Dollar, Japanese Yen, British Sterling, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar. Minor currencies are currencies with lower transaction volumes, preferred by local investors.
The most preferred minor currencies are New Zealand Dollar, South African Randi, Singapore Dollar. Parity pairs consisting of one major currency and one minor currency are also called minor parity.
On the Forex market, every transaction on the parity occurs when a foreign currency is sold and other foreign currency is bought. According to this price, it is necessary to understand how much the counter currency should be paid to get one from the first currency. If the EURUSD is priced at 1.1090, EUR1.1090 will have to be paid to get 1 EURO. In the Forex market, investors aim to earn from price fluctuations of currency pairs by buying or selling other currencies in exchange for a foreign currency. The expectation of investors who want to buy the euro and make a profit increases the value of parity, but this situation is shaped by the multiplicity of supply and demand.
How is the parity calculated? We will clarify this question with the help of a sample;
EURUSD is calculated as: 3,2440 / 2,9220 = 1,1101.
There are many factors that affect the price of the parity. These are economic data, decisions of the Central Bank, political developments and geopolitical risks, which have a significant effect on the price of the currency. The increase in interest rates ensures that the growth figures announced on the anticipation or the value of the industrial currency are appreciated; Low employment, rising foreign trade deficits in emerging countries, or rising inflation lead to the devaluation of the money. The uncertainties in the political structure of the country and the loss of political confidence will cause the currency to lose value.